Fun with Numbers: My 2019 Financial Report

Everytime I post a blog like this, I hear from the same three people:

My friend Sandra (from my working days at GNCorp) will write “Douglas… you shouldn’t be sharing personal information, you are asking for trouble.”

My sister Shawn takes a more dramatic route:  “Okay… I DID read your blog.  And it made no sense to me!  Are these calculations for the next rocket to the moon?  Did I tell you I saw ‘Hidden Figures’, that movie about the women who worked for NASA in the 1960s?  Wasn’t that a great movie??”

My friend Danielle is a little more blunt:  “Number blogs are boring!  Everyone hates your numbers blogs!”

  I can’t help it.  I like numbers… especially when they’re mine!  But I like other people’s numbers too, like when I read FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) blogs.  They share stuff like their monthly expenditures, right down to the last penny!  Here’s MY monthly expenditures:

• RENT:  750.00
• ELECTRIC:  50.00
• PHONE/CABLE/INTERNET:   200.00
• HEALTH INSURANCE:  100.00
• GROCERIES:   200.00-250.00
• AMAZON.COM, RITE-AID, NETFLIX, HAIRCUT, TAKEOUT,  LL BEAN, BAKERY & OTHER DOO-DADS:  500.00
• TOTAL:  $1850.00

 And now, my 2019 Financial Report:  “Fear Ruled the Roost”

At the start of January, while many retirees prepared to sell stocks / make their annual withdrawals, I had two years spending safely squirreled away and was sitting pretty.  I had no real plans to sell stocks anytime soon.

Besides, my New Year 2019 portfolio was down 15% from last year’s value.  It was no surprise, December 2018 had just gone down in history as the worst December on record for investors.  Still, I visited a couple early retirement sites to see what others were doing—most were damning the numbers, full speed ahead (selling at a loss).  Some were waiting, others were only selling a couple months worth for expenses. 

I should’ve walked away, focused on other things; instead I watched the markets every day and on January 22 when my own portfolio was at 96% value of the year before, I updated my Retirement Manager (above) and sold $20,000 of stocks.

And the next day, I regretted it.

1. The market was still continuing to climb in value.
2. Just because it was January didn’t mean I needed that money now.
3. My 70-20-10 target allocation was now skewed, too heavy in short-term reserves.

My homegrown Retirement Manager may have ‘approved’ me withdrawing 20K (it actually approved $21,770.36) but I was already good.  What was I thinking?  Get it before it’s gone again.  That was a panic sell on my part, darn it. 

At least my withdrawal rate is still (on average) at 4%.

So right now, I’m debating whether to keep that withdrawal in short-term reserves, or put some back if the market takes a swan-dive and I can buy those stocks back cheap.  

As I recently wrote in my ‘Bucket List’ blog, I like the idea of having a couple years worth of safe assets, it helps me to sleep at night.  But anything more than that feels excessive and is hindering portfolio earnings.    

On the other hand, a lot of so-called “experts” are predicting a full blown recession next year, a sure thing by 2021.  (I won’t be ‘buying on the cheap’, I won’t be selling either.)  Warren Buffet says that when the markets are good, investors look down on holding cash… but when the markets tank, cash is king.   We’ll see!