Sunday, December 1, 2024

Erin and the 4th Turning: maybe there's hope for us yet

The other night I was talking with my friend & former coworker Erin, the only person I keep in touch with from my days at UPMC Health Plan.  We worked off & on together until my retirement, from 2000-2015.

I’m surprised we even became friends, she’s a bit younger than me.  I’ve always been more comfortable with people my age or older, but Erin’s different. Without giving away her age, let’s just say she was born when I was in the 10th grade. 

But we worked side by side for years, were sci-fi geeks and fans of The Walking Dead and Big Bang Theory.  

Where was I?  Oh that’s right—so we’re on the phone the other night, and she asked if I’d ever heard of a book titled “The Fourth Turning” or saw the video on Youtube.  Nope. 

So later that night I clicked on the youtube link Erin sent me and was very intrigued.

This man explains that throughout American history, from before the Revolutionary War to the present, our country has gone thru the same blocks of history lasting 80 years.  Each block is broken into four segments—High, The Awakening, The Unraveling, Crisis. 

Here’s a chart of our current history block.

The social scientist goes into elaborate detail on these segments, including ones earlier (for example, our last ‘Crisis’ segment saw the collapse of Wall Street, the Great Depression, the rise of Fascism, WWII). 

And then the 80 year cycle began anew.   Our history block above.

Here’s what I found particularly fascinating; this video (from 3 years ago) is based on a book written in 1997—where the author forecasts a crisis segment in 11 years, 2008-2028.  He had no idea what was coming.  But sure enough….

I know one can twist historical events to make anything fit their story.  For crying out loud, we celebrate Columbus Day and the man was a slave trader.  But you can’t deny we’re going through a pretty epic crisis in American history right now, and have been since 2008.  

So… four more years until the cycle begins anew.  I wonder if we’re truly on the cusp of the next High around 2028?  Fingers crossed.  If you want to check out the video, it’s only 10 minutes long and right here.  Here’s hoping history repeats itself.

 

26 comments:

  1. Fascinating, Doug. You’ve really given me something to think about!

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  2. I will watch this. Truly a hopeful moment in the midst of bleakness.

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  3. Well, that's a deep subject there! I will say that if this goes as planned, my old age is fraught with too much turmoil. But maybe there will be better times when I near 80! We will revisit this in 2030.

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    1. Thank you dkzody, but I'm hoping we won't have to wait until 2030 :^)

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  4. Interesting concept. But, you can fit anything into your scheme of things. Looking forward to 2029.

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  5. Definitely interesting, Dug. I watched the video, and will have DH watch it too. Don't know if we'll be around for the next possible 'turning'... but if it's a 'high', then I hope so. But for the moment, I'll concentrate on getting through the next 4 years.

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    1. Thank you Rian, and nicely said. That's all any of us can do.

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  6. I think that is a book I will wait to research after the holidays. I sure hope there is a turning.

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    1. Thanks Miss Merry, if you do and learn anything more, please let me know.

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  7. Let’s hope that for 20 years after 2028 we get music as good as Fats Domino, Little Richard, Chuck Berry, Elvis, the Everly Brothers, Ricky Nelson, Sam Cooke, The Shirelles, Roy Obison etc.
    And in the following 20 years (although I suspect I won’t be around to check) music as good as Dylan, the Beatles, the Byrds, The Band, the Ronettes, the Stones etc.
    Fortunately, I’ll miss the following two segments.

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    1. Peter, this is why you're the Music Man. I sure hope we get the same, sir and a little bit more. :^)

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  8. Four more years of crisis sounds about right. 😠 Very interesting video. Joyce

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    1. Thanks Joyce and it's good to hear from you. 👍

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  9. I put this, and the sequel, on my to read list. Getting close.

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    1. Good to hear, thanks Joanne. If you learn anything more, I'd love to know.

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  10. Fascinating premise and a bit hopeful. I can't be too optimistic though, Doug. I was about the election and got burned. :(

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    1. Thanks Margaret and I couldn’t agree more. 😑

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  11. I do hope the author is correct, but I'd like the turning to come a little sooner. Those who are proponents of Project 2025 will do all they can to avert the turning, and it will really depend on how the courts handle challenges to the upcoming administration's decisions.

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    1. Thanks Maebeme--well, right now the courts seem like our only hope.

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  12. Four years of Trump and then there will be prosperity? Sounds good to me.

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    1. Thanks Gigi--I thought we had prosperity now, I worry what we'll have after Donald's term but we'll see :^)

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  13. It seems like a high price to pay, the next 4 years.......
    I too am on a news diet. But the news of you feeling a bit improved is too good to miss.

    Ceci

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    1. Thanks Ceci, so agreed! As for my improvement, you are very sweet. It changes up and down daily it seems, but I'm getting there.

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